|
----
Iran's Quest
For
Nuclear Weapons
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Iran's Hidden Revolution
- Danielle Pletka and Ali Alfoneh
Just after Iran's rigged elections last week, it looked as if
a new revolution
was in the offing. Five days later, the uprising is little more than a
symbolic protest, crushed by the elite Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.
The real revolution is that the guard has effected a silent coup d'etat.
Iran has evolved from a theocratic state to a military dictatorship.
Fourteen of the 21 cabinet ministers appointed by former Revolutionary
Guard officer Ahmadinejad are former members of the guard or its
associated paramilitary, the Basij. Provincial governors, press
commissars, film directors, intelligence officers and business leaders are
increasingly former members of the guard. Danielle Pletka is the vice
president for foreign and defense policy studies at the American
Enterprise Institute. Ali Alfoneh is a visiting fellow at the institute.
(New York Times)
[Courtesy --
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Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs,
Daily Alert,
June 17, 2009]
North Korea, Iran Joined on Missile Work;
Iranian Missile Threat on U.S. Seen by 2015
- Jim Wolf
Iran and North Korea are working together to develop ballistic missiles
and have made significant progress, Lt.-Gen. Patrick O'Reilly, the head of
the Pentagon's Missile Defense Agency, said Thursday. They are sharing
know-how on avionics, propulsion and materials. The U.S. Air Force's
National Air and Space Intelligence Center said in a new report: "Iran
has ambitious ballistic missile and space launch development programs and,
with sufficient foreign assistance, Iran could develop and test an ICBM
capable of reaching the United States by 2015." (Reuters)
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June 12, 2009]
North Korea-Iran Cooperation on Nuclear
Weapons - Bret Stephens (Wall
Street Journal)
-
Iran's military and R&D links to North Korea
go back more than 20 years, when Iran purchased 100 Scud-B missiles for
use in the Iran-Iraq war. Since then, Iranians have reportedly been
present at a succession of North Korean missile tests. North Korea also
seems to have off-shored its missile testing to Iran after it declared a
"moratorium" on its own tests in the late 1990s.
-
In a 2008 paper published by the Korea
Economic Institute, Dr. Christina Lin of Jane's Information Group noted
that "Increased visits to Iran by DPRK [North Korea] nuclear specialists
in 2003 reportedly led to a DPRK-Iran agreement for the DPRK to either
initiate or accelerate work with Iranians to develop nuclear warheads
that could be fitted on the DPRK No-dong missiles that the DPRK and Iran
were jointly developing. Thus, despite the 2007 National Intelligence
Estimate stating that Iran in 2003 had halted weaponization of its
nuclear program, this was the time that Iran outsourced to the DPRK for
proxy development of nuclear warheads."
-
According to a 2003 report in the Los
Angeles Times, "So many North Koreans are working on nuclear and missile
projects in Iran that a resort on the Caspian coast is set aside for
their exclusive use."
-
North Korea's second bomb test last week
might also have been Iran's first. If so, the only thing between Iran
and a bomb is a long-range cargo plane.
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June 2, 2009]
Poll: Americans See Threat from Iran
(McLaughlin and Associates)
71% of American voters say the U.S. will not be safe with a nuclear
Iran and 79% say it is likely that Iran will provide nuclear weapons to
terrorists to attack an American city, according to a poll conducted on
May 8-9.
80% say it is likely that Iran will launch a missile attack on Israel,
77% say it is likely that Iran will use the threat of nuclear attack to
provide a shield for Hizbullah and Hamas terrorists to attack Israel, and
82% say the U.S. should be concerned about the security of Israel.
57% say Israel would be justified in attacking Iran's nuclear
facilities given that Iran has publicly threatened to annihilate Israel.
60% say that the Palestinians would continue their campaign of terror
to destroy Israel even if they were given their own state in the West Bank
and Gaza.
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May 21, 2009]
Iran to Mass Produce Long-Range Missiles
- Yaakov Katz
Iran is in the midst of a multi-year plan to produce 500 missile launchers
and over 1,000 missiles with a range of 2,500 km. by 2015. Tehran is
believed to currently have an arsenal of 100-200 long-range Shihab
missiles that have a range of up to 2,000 kilometers and carry up to
one-ton warheads. "The Iranians are making great efforts to obtain a
significant number of missiles," said Tal Inbar, head of the Space
Research Center at the Fisher Brothers Institute in Herzliya. "They
already talk about how one of the ways they will overcome the missile
defense systems is by firing salvos of missiles." (Jerusalem Post)
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May 18, 2009]
Diplomacy Without Sincerity
- Michael Rubin
On Apr. 9, Gholam Reza Aghazadeh, the head of Iran's atomic energy agency,
announced that the Islamic Republic had installed 7,000 centrifuges in its
Natanz uranium enrichment facility. The announcement came one day after
the U.S. State Department announced it would engage Iran directly in
multilateral nuclear talks.
On June 14, 2008, Abdollah Ramezanzadeh, former Iranian President
Mohammad Khatami's spokesman, debated advisers to current Iranian
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at the University of Gila in northern Iran.
Ramezanzadeh criticized Ahmadinejad for his defiant rhetoric, and
counseled him to accept the Khatami approach: "We should prove to the
entire world that we want power plants for electricity. Afterwards, we can
proceed with other activities." The purpose of dialogue, he argued, was
not to compromise, but to build confidence and avoid sanctions.
"We had an overt policy, which was one of negotiation and confidence
building, and a covert policy, which was continuation of the activities,"
he said. The strategy was successful. While today U.S. and European
officials laud Khatami as a peacemaker, it was on his watch that Iran
built and operated covertly its Natanz nuclear enrichment plant and, at
least until 2003, a nuclear weapons program as well. The writer is a
resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. (Wall Street
Journal)
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April 13, 2009]
Israel: Iran Using Nuclear Talks to Buy Time
for Bomb
Iran is trying to use the talks with Western powers on its nuclear
ambitions to buy time to produce an atomic bomb, Israel's military
intelligence chief said on Sunday. "Iran has crossed the technological
threshold. Reaching a military-grade nuclear capability is a question of
synchronizing its strategy with the production of a nuclear bomb,"
Maj.-Gen. Amos Yadlin told cabinet ministers. "Iran continues to stockpile
hundreds of kilograms of low-level enriched uranium and hopes to use the
dialogue with the West to buy the time it requires in order to move
towards an ability to manufacture a nuclear bomb," a senior official
quoted Yadlin as saying. (AFP)
See also
Military Intelligence: Iran Capable of
Creating Nuclear Bomb - Roni Sofer
According to figures released by the International Atomic Energy Agency,
Iran has enriched 1,010 kilograms of low quality uranium. The amount of
low quality enriched uranium needed for the creation of one nuclear bomb
is 1,500 kilograms. (Ynet News)
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March 9, 2009]
U.S. Military Chief: Iran Has Enough Material
to Make a Nuclear Weapon
Iran likely has enough material to make a nuclear weapon, U.S. Joint
Chiefs of Staff chairman Adm. Mike Mullen told CNN on Sunday. "We think
they do, quite frankly," Mullen said. "Iran having a nuclear weapon ... "
[Courtesy --
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March 2, 2009]
Iran Crisis Arriving Faster than We Think
- Editorial (Wall Street Journal)
Iran now possesses 5,600 centrifuges in which it can enrich uranium - a
34-fold increase from 2006 - and plans to add 45,000 more over five years.
That will give Tehran an ability to make atomic bombs on an industrial
scale.
In addition, Iran's new Russian-built reactor at Bushehr will eventually
produce large quantities of spent fuel that can covertly be processed into
weapons-usable plutonium.
Furthermore, most proliferation experts agree that Iran's heavy water
reactor in Arak, scheduled for completion in 2011, can have no purpose other
than to produce weapons-grade plutonium.
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March 3, 2009]
New Iranian UAV Capability Is Troublesome
- Editorial
Iran has developed a new generation of unmanned aerial vehicles with a
range of 1,000 kilometers (620 miles), Iranian Deputy Defense Minister
Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi announced this week. The new UAV could soar
over every U.S. military installation, diplomatic mission or country of
interest in the Middle East. Drones are very attractive to smaller states
because they are inexpensive, stealthy and pose fewer risks than
conventional aircraft. In 2007 Iran claimed to have begun producing
"suicide drones" invisible to radar and usable as guided missiles to
attack U.S. ships. Should Iran arm its drones with missiles having
chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear warheads, any of which are
or soon will be within Iranian capabilities, the UAVs will be strategic,
offensive weapon systems. (Washington Times)
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Daily Alert,
February 20, 2009]
Iran's Game-Changing Long-Range Missile
- Uzi Rubin
On Nov. 12, Iran launched a new type of long-range ballistic missile, the
Sajil. Its appearance is living testimony to the failure of the world
community to curb the trade in missile technology, not to speak of curbing
the malicious ambitions of Iran's mullahs. This is a brand-new missile, an
original design more advanced than anything available to the North
Koreans, and it signifies Iran's graduation into world-level missilery.
Its range is longer than the Shahab-3 - 2,400 kilometers - which makes the
new missile capable of reaching - besides every capital city of the Middle
East - Moscow, Warsaw, and the outskirts of Vienna and St. Petersburg.
The appearance of the Sajil highlights Iran's single-minded pursuit of
ballistic missile capability in every conceivable technology. This is the
second multistage Iranian rocket program to surface, following the
two-stage Safir space launcher that first flew last August. This diversity
and tempo of development is almost unparalleled. All this for
conventional warheads?
It also highlights the limits of nonproliferation since its
large-diameter solid propulsion system requires a host of special
technologies and machines whose export is strictly controlled by the
Missile Technology Control Regime. It is inconceivable that Iran
developed such technologies on its own. In spite of all the export
controls, someone sold them to Iran. It is time to move from
nonproliferation to counterproliferation, including missile defense. The
writer oversaw the development of Israel's Arrow anti-missile defense
system. (Defense News)
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for Public Affairs,
Daily Alert,
November 26, 2008]
How to Put the Squeeze on Iran
- Orde F. Kittrie
If Barack Obama is to persuade Iran to negotiate away its illegal nuclear
weapons program, he will first need to generate more leverage. Tehran has
an economic Achilles' heel - its extraordinarily heavy dependence on
imported gasoline. Iran imports some 40% of the gasoline it needs for
internal consumption.
In recent months, Iran has purchased nearly all of this gasoline
from just five companies: the Swiss firm Vitol; the Swiss/Dutch firm
Trafigura; the French firm Total; British Petroleum; and the Indian
company Reliance Industries. If these companies stopped supplying
Iran, the Iranians could replace only some of what they needed from other
suppliers - and at a significantly higher price. Neither Russia nor China
could serve as alternative suppliers since both are themselves heavily
dependent on gasoline imports. The writer, a professor of law at Arizona
State University, worked for 11 years at the State Department, including
as a specialist on nuclear nonproliferation and sanctions. (Wall Street
Journal)
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Daily Alert,
November 13, 2008]
Berlin Loves Iran
- Editorial
It's been a while since German military officers attended rallies that
feature threats to Jews. Last month Berlin's defense attache in Tehran
resumed that tradition at Iran's annual military parade. This episode
illustrates the fundamental problem with Germany's attitude toward Iran:
the disconnect between what Berlin says is its official policy goal -
stopping the mullahs' quest for nuclear arms - and what Berlin actually
does.
Germany remains Iran's
key Western trading partner. In the first
seven months of this year, Germany's Federal Office of Economics and
Export Control approved 1,926 business deals with Iran - an increase of
63% over last year. During that same period, German exports to Iran rose
14%. For the record, French exports went up 21% during the first six
months of the year, while Britain's exports to Tehran fell 20%. (Wall
Street Journal Europe)
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October 17, 2008]
Iran Is a Bigger Threat than Wall Street
- Greg Sheridan (The Australian)
-
At some stage during the next presidency,
Iran will blow up into a full-scale crisis that will dominate global
politics and that may be more important than the Wall Street financial
crisis, the war in Afghanistan, Pakistan's internal crisis, and the
relentless military build-up of China.
-
A bipartisan report commissioned by two
former U.S. senators and written primarily by Middle East expert Michael
Rubin of the American Enterprise Institute begins: "A nuclear weapons
capable Islamic Republic of Iran is strategically untenable."
-
"A nuclear ready or nuclear-armed Islamic
Republic ruled by the clerical regime could threaten the Persian Gulf
region and its vast energy resources, spark nuclear proliferation
throughout the Middle East, inject additional volatility into global
energy markets, embolden extremists in the region and destabilize states
such as Saudi Arabia and others in the region, provide nuclear
technology to other radical regimes and terrorists (although Iran might
hesitate to share traceable nuclear technology), and seek to make good
on its threats to eradicate Israel."
-
"The threat posed by the Islamic Republic is
not only direct Iranian action but also aggression committed by proxy.
Iran remains the world's most active state sponsor of terrorism, proving
its reach from Buenos Aires to Baghdad."
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September 29, 2008]
Hanged for Being a Christian in Iran
- Alasdair Palmer
A month ago, the Iranian parliament voted in favor of an "Islamic Penal
Code" which would codify the death penalty for any male Iranian who leaves
his Islamic faith. Women would get life imprisonment. The vote in favor of
the new law was 196 to 7. Imposing the death penalty for changing religion
blatantly violates one of the most fundamental of all human rights. The
right to freedom of religion is enshrined in the Universal Declaration of
Human Rights, in the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights,
and in the European Convention of Human Rights. It is even enshrined as
Article 23 of Iran's own constitution, which states that no one may be
molested simply for his beliefs.
Hossein Soodmand was the last man to be executed in Iran for apostasy,
the "crime" of abandoning one's religion. He had converted from Islam to
Christianity in 1960, when he was 13 years old. Thirty years later, he was
hanged by the Iranian authorities for that decision. His son, Ramtin, also a
Christian, was arrested on August 21. It is feared he may become one of the
first to be killed under Iran's new law. (Telegraph-UK)
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Daily Alert,
October 15, 2008]
Building a Security Framework for a Nuclear
Iran - David Kay
Given what we know and what we can best-guess, it looks as if Iran is
80 percent of the way to a functioning nuclear weapon. We know,
basically, that Tehran has a handle on the fissionable material. Iran
imported significant amounts of raw uranium from China in 1991. It has
also attempted to produce weapons-grade material, conducting secret
enrichment efforts and acquiring designs, materials and samples of gas
centrifuges for uranium enrichment from the A.Q. Khan network. Plus, over
the past 18 years, the Iranians have developed and tested state-of-the-art
centrifuges and enrichment techniques. If Iran's 6,000 forthcoming
new-design centrifuges were working for a year, the program could
produce about five weapons. My best guess is that they are about two
to four years away from accomplishing this. Obtaining that last 20 percent
of the elements needed to make a nuclear weapon would take perhaps one to
two years. (Washington Post)
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Daily Alert,
September 8, 2008]
Listening to Iran
- Terry Milewski (CBC News-Canada)
Menashe Amir is the voice of Israel in Iran.
On Israel's state-run radio, he's been broadcasting daily to Iran, in
Farsi, for 48 years. Amir said the West has failed to understand the
Iranian threat. He believes the regime is opposed by most Iranians but is
consumed by an apocalyptic vision: the triumph of Shia Islam over the
world. Western governments, he says, don't see that, for the Iranian
mullahs, the destruction of the Jewish state is just a step along the way.
"On the same day, in the same speech that Ahmadinejad called for wiping
off Israel from the map, he added that the destruction of Israel is the
first step of our final confrontation with Western civilization."
Amir says the regime dreams of a new caliphate
- an Islamic empire spanning the globe. "They have the money, the
missiles, they are seeking to have the nuclear bomb and the life of
humankind is not important for them. I want to mention what Rahim Safavy,
who was the chief commander of the Revolutionary Guards in Iran, said a
few days ago: 'We shall win and you, the Westerners, shall lose because we
gave 200,000 victims, martyrs, in eight years of war with Iraq and we have
300,000 disabled and injured in this war - and we don't care about it. But
you, the Westerners, are afraid to give 4,000 or 5,000 victims and
casualties, so the final victory will be ours.'"
[Courtesy --
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Daily Alert,
August 29, 2008]
London's Terror Bank
- Editorial (Wall Street Journal)
Just this month, the Brits joined with U.S.
and French officials in sending a letter to the UN Security Council
warning against "Iran's continued attempts to conduct prohibited
proliferation-related activity and terrorist financing." Given that Bank
Saderat PLC has been precisely the mechanism to get money to terrorists,
it's hard to understand why the rogue financial institution still enjoys a
home in London.
British action could be particularly
beneficial now, as the policy of isolating Iran from the international
banking system appears to be putting genuine stress on Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad's government. Almost all of the world's commercial banks have
ceased doing business with Iran, making even routine trade a logistical
challenge. It's not a coincidence that Iran's economy has been struggling
even amid an oil boom, or that internal dissent against the Iranian
government is increasing.
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August 21, 2008]
The Russian-Georgian War: Implications for the
Middle East - Ariel Cohen
(Institute for Contemporary Affairs-Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs)
U.S. intelligence-gathering and analysis on
the Russian threat to Georgia failed. So did U.S. military assistance to
Georgia, worth around $2 billion over the last 15 years. This is something
to remember when looking at recent American intelligence assessments of
the Iranian nuclear threat or the unsuccessful training of Palestinian
Authority security forces against Hamas.
The writer is Senior Research Fellow in
Russian and Eurasian Studies and International Energy Security at The
Heritage Foundation.
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Daily Alert,
August 15, 2008]
Russia and China Subverting Iran Sanctions - Editorial (Washington
Times)
Russia appears determined to expand its oil
and gas investments in Iran. Between 2000 and 2007, the Russian
state-controlled energy giant Gazprom invested $4 billion in Iran. In
February, Gazprom announced it would expand its involvement in developing
Iran's South Pars natural-gas field in the Persian Gulf and would aid
Tehran's oil-exploration efforts. Gazprom last month signed a
multibillion-dollar agreement with the Iranian National Oil Co. to help
Iran develop its oil and gas fields.
The Iranian government has also announced a
$100 billion agreement with the Chinese oil giant Sinopec, in which the
firm agreed to purchase Iranian natural gas and help develop one of Iran's
largest oil fields.
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Daily Alert,
August 13, 2008]
The Hollow Regime: Bragging in Tehran
- Michael Ledeen (National Review)
-
The Iranian regime has two fundamental
instruments of power, whether at home or abroad: terror and deception.
Both are dramatically on display.
-
This past Sunday, 30 people were executed
for a variety of alleged crimes, and a number of whom lost their lives
because they dared to criticize the regime. This wave of executions in
the world's second-most active killer of its own citizens (China tops
the list) coincides with the anniversary of the resumption of public
hangings last August, which was viewed as "sending a message" to
would-be critics and anyone in the West who might be tempted to support
Iranian dissidents. This weekend's mass executions mark a new, grisly
watershed in the mullahs' ongoing terror war against their own people.
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July 30, 2008]
When Talking Can Kill
- Caroline Glick
The West's latest offer to appease Tehran constituted a major achievement
for the Iranians. It promised civilian nuclear power plants, economic
assistance, new airplanes, agricultural assistance, hi-tech transfers and
a freeze on the expansion of economic sanctions against the
nuclear-weapons-seeking mullocracy. In exchange, the Iranians weren't even
required to end their uranium enrichment activities. All they needed to do
was promise not to expand their current enrichment activities.
As David Albright, president of the Washington-based Institute for
Science and International Security, explained to Newsweek, at their
current, known level of uranium enrichment the Iranians are producing 1.2
kg. of enriched uranium a day. At this enrichment level, they will be able
to produce a nuclear bomb by next year. So the international community's
willingness to accept continued Iranian uranium enrichment at current
levels is a clear signal of the international community's willingness to
accept a nuclear-armed Iran. (Jerusalem Post)
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July 15, 2008]
German Trade with Iran Growing
- Assaf Uni (Ha'aretz)
Trade between Germany and Iran is expanding despite Berlin's
declarations that it is curtailing its trade. Ha'aretz has calculated that
in the first four months of the year, German exports to Iran increased by
around 18% from the same period last year.
Germany, Iran's biggest trade partner in the
EU,
is under American and Israeli pressure to reduce its economic ties with
Iran, after Tehran's refusal to suspend uranium enrichment and its threats
against Israel.
In the first four months of 2008, Germany exported to Iran 1.35
billion euros worth of merchandise, consisting of chemical and iron
products, cars, engines and engineering equipment.
Some 1,700 German companies are operating in Iran, including giants
such as Siemens and chemical group BASF.
[Courtesy --
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Center for Public Affairs,
Daily Alert,
June 27, 2008]
Berlin - Iran
- Editorial
Berlin's refusal to use its considerable economic leverage over Tehran
puts it at odds not only with Washington but increasingly with its
European partners in London and Paris. In February, Germany's Export
Control Office gave the green light for a $157 million gas deal with Iran.
SPG Steiner-Prematechnik-Gastec will build three plants that turn gas to
liquid fuels. German imports from Iran rose 28% last year. And German
exports to Iran are up 13.6% in the first quarter. Meanwhile, Germany is
increasingly siding with China and Russia to give diplomacy yet another
chance even as Iran's regime shows no willingness to respond to the
carrots. (Wall Street Journal-Europe)
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Jerusalem
Center for Public Affairs,
Daily Alert,
August 1, 2008]
June 2008: United Nations nuclear watchdog chief Mohamed ElBaradei: Iran
is able to produce a nuclear weapon in
six months to a year
IAEA "Alarmed" by Iran's Nuclear Weapons Work
Inspectors from the UN atomic watchdog are "alarmed" that Iran has in its
possession a document describing the process for making what could be the
core of a nuclear weapon, a Western diplomat said Thursday. The 15-page
document describes the process of machining uranium metal into two
hemispheres of the kind used in nuclear warheads.
At a closed-door meeting with diplomats, the International Atomic
Energy Agency's chief for inspections, Olli Heinonen, revealed that the
agency had gathered intelligence from around ten countries suggesting Iran
was engaged in weaponization studies in the past. "The term he used for
this document was 'alarming.' He essentially said there was no reason why
a country would need to possess such a document unless they wanted to
produce uranium hemispheres for a nuclear weapon," the diplomat said. (AFP)
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May 30, 2008]
Iran Stonewalling UN Nuclear Inspectors
- Editorial
Last August, the International Atomic Energy Agency struck a deal with Iran
on a "work plan" for clearing up outstanding questions about its nuclear
program within three months. IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei, who
launched the initiative as an end run around the Western campaign to stop
Tehran's ongoing uranium enrichment, claimed that it would be a "litmus
test." "If Iran were to prove that it was using this period for delaying
tactics and it was not really acting in good faith, then obviously nobody -
nobody - will come to its support when people call for more sanctions or for
punitive measures," he said. On Monday, six months after the deadline, the
IAEA issued a report saying, in essence, that Iran had not acted in good
faith and was engaging in delaying tactics. (Washington Post)
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May 29, 2008]
The Iranian-Israeli War
- Yossi Klein Halevi
Regardless of the affiliation of the actual perpetrator of the
massacre of eight students in a yeshiva
library in Jerusalem last week, the
ultimate responsibility for this attack, as for almost all the terror
attacks on Israel in recent years, lies with Iran. The Palestinian
struggle is no longer about creating an independent state. It is about
being a front-line participant in the Iranian-led jihad to destroy Israel,
evolving from a nationalist to a religious war. A real solution to the
Arab-Israeli conflict can only be reached by dealing with its primary
instigator: Iran.
After Yasser Arafat launched a war against Israel in September 2000,
he initiated an alliance with Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. Until
then, Iran's only client within the Palestinian national movement had been
the Islamic Jihad, the smallest of the Palestinian terrorist factions.
According to a former chief of Israeli military intelligence, Arafat
promised the Iranians that he would turn Gaza into a second southern
Lebanon, and Iran began providing weapons and funds to Arafat's Fatah. In
January 2002, Israel intercepted the Karine A, a ship carrying
Iranian-supplied Katyusha rockets and mortars and C-4 explosives for use
in suicide bombings.
Three years ago, Damascus-based Hamas leader Khaled Meshal
orchestrated a formal alliance and today Hamas is an integral part of the
Iranian war against Israel. Iran has trained hundreds of Hamas operatives
- and continues to fund individual members of Fatah's Al Aqsa Brigades.
The writer is a senior fellow at the Adelson Center for Strategic Studies
of the Shalem Center in Jerusalem. (New Republic)
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Daily Alert,
March 12, 2008]
U.S. Warns Europe of Iran Missiles
- Kim Murphy
Lt. Gen. Henry Obering III, director of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency
warned Thursday that Iran was within two or three years of producing a
missile that could reach most European capitals. "They're already flying
missiles that exceed what they would need in a fight with Israel. Why? Why
do they continue this progression in terms of range of missiles? It's
something we need to think about," "Our short-range defenses could
protect Rome and Athens," Obering said, but he warned that London, Paris
and Brussels would remain vulnerable "against an Iranian
[intermediate-range missile] threat."
Many in Europe have expressed doubts that Iran would target European
cities. But Obering said it was possible to imagine as little as seven
years from now a nuclear-armed Iran shutting off oil shipments in the
Persian Gulf, or al-Qaeda militants seizing freighters off Europe and
arming them with nuclear-tipped Scud missiles "to punish the West for
invasion of Muslim holy lands." (Los Angeles Times)
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Jerusalem
Center for Public Affairs,
Daily Alert,
February 29, 2008]
Mullahs in Space
- Peter Brookes
On Feb. 5, Iranian President Ahmadinejad ordered the launch of a ballistic
missile described as a "space launch vehicle" from a new space center in
northern Iran. Iran claims it set the stage for a future launch of the
first Iranian-built satellite next spring. A space program is critical to
developing ICBM capacity. Theoretically, if you can launch a ballistic
missile that can place a satellite into earth orbit, you have the
scientific wherewithal to hit a target anywhere on Earth with a warhead,
including a nuke. A two-stage missile from Iran could reach our East
Coast; three-stages, the whole United States. The writer, a Heritage
Foundation senior fellow, is a former deputy assistant secretary of
defense. (New York Post)
[Courtesy --
Conference of Presidents of Major
American Jewish Organizations
by the
Jerusalem
Center for Public Affairs,
Daily Alert,
February 28, 2008]
Iran Could Have Enough Uranium for a Bomb by
Year's End - Markus Becker
New simulations carried out by European Union experts come to an alarming
conclusion: Iran could have enough highly enriched uranium to build an
atomic bomb by the end of this year. When the U.S. released a new National
Intelligence Estimate last year, it seemed as though the danger of a
mullah-bomb had passed. The report claimed that Tehran mothballed its
nuclear weapons program in autumn 2003.
As part of a project to improve control of nuclear materials, the
European Commission Joint Research Center (JRC) in Ispra, Italy, set up a
detailed simulation of the centrifuges currently used by Iran in the
Natanz nuclear facility to enrich uranium. The results look nothing like
those reached by the U.S. intelligence community. For one scenario, the JRC
scientists assumed the centrifuges in Natanz were operating at 100%
efficiency. Were that the case, Iran could already have the 25 kilograms of
highly enriched uranium necessary for an atomic device by the end of this
year. Another scenario assumed a much lower efficiency - just 25%. But even
then, Iran would have produced enough uranium by the end of 2010. (Der
Spiegel-Germany)
[Courtesy --
Conference of Presidents of Major
American Jewish Organizations
by the
Jerusalem
Center for Public Affairs,
Daily Alert,
February 22, 2008]
Iran Developing Nuclear Warheads, Exile Group
Claims
Mohammad Mohaddessin, a representative of the Paris-based National
Council of Resistance of Iran, claimed Wednesday in Brussels that Tehran
had established a command and control center to work on a nuclear bomb and
that it was also setting up a center to produce warheads. He said Iran had
closed down one center only to open another later with the same purpose,
and called the U.S. National Intelligence Estimate "not accurate." He
said he had provided the latest information to the International Atomic
Energy Agency on Tuesday and urged them to investigate more sites in Iran
and interview more scientists. Mohaddessin said the information came from
sources within Iran, including from among staff at covert nuclear plants.
(AP/International Herald Tribune)
The new command and control center, coded-named Lavizan-2, was
established at Mojdeh on the outskirts of Tehran last April, near the site
of a previous facility razed after its exposure. Production of nuclear
warheads is at a complex code-named B1-Nori-8500 at Khojir, about 20 km.
further southeast. Mohaddessin said the Khojir site was under the charge
of missile expert Mehdi Naghiyan Fesharaki, who was transferred there two
years ago. "This means the regime is getting to the point of connecting
nuclear weapons to missiles," he said.
"The Iranian regime is undoubtedly developing the nuclear bomb.
None of the essential work has been halted....All three parts have been
speeded up," he said, referring to uranium enrichment, weaponization, and
missile development. "Time is running out to stop the regime acquiring a
nuclear bomb. If we do not act today, tomorrow might be too late." (Reuters)
[Courtesy --
Conference of Presidents of Major
American Jewish Organizations
by the
Jerusalem
Center for Public Affairs,
Daily Alert,
February 21, 2008]
The
2007 NIE
claims halt in the Iranian weapons
program despite Iran's unprecedented
development of solid fuel, long-range
missiles
and unimpeded,
deceitful
uranium
enrichment
program .
U.S. intelligence discredits itself.
Israel is
backed into a corner.
Amir Oren, Ha'aretz, Dec 2007 :
"A hearty Persian
laugh was heard in Tehran after looking at U.S.
intelligence's website with the unclassified version of
"Iran: Nuclear
Intentions and Capabilities." The document enables the ayatollahs' nuclear
and operations officials and the heads of the Revolutionary Guards to
conclude that the Americans have
no understanding of what is really
happening in Iran's nuclear program. They have no solid information, they
have no high-level agents and they have nothing more than
a mix of
guesswork and chatter. The dissemblance and concealment
have succeeded."
Feb 2008: In testimony to the Senate
Intelligence Committee, Admiral Michael McConnell, the
Director of National Intelligence
attempts to reverse the damage done by the NIE.
Aluf Benn, Ha'aretz - Oct, 2007:
"This is the assessment of the situation at the top diplomatic and
military levels in Israel: Iran is
moving, unhindered, toward a nuclear
bomb. Blocking it with economic sanctions has failed, mainly because
Russia,
Germany and Italy refuse to stop doing business with the
Iranians." [Great
Britain Too.]
Lt. Gen. Henry Obering, chief of the U.S.
missile defense program, October 2, 2007: "Most of the intelligence
experts predict that sometime before 2015, or in that time frame, the
Iranians will have developed the capabilities
to threaten the United States,
from a missile technology perspective."
Gerard Baker,
Times-UK -- "Iran, secure behind its nuclear wall, will surely step up its
campaign of terror around the world. Protected by a nuclear-missile-owning
state, Iranian terror training camps will become impregnable."
------------------
Nov 2007: Brig.-Gen. Yossi Baidatz,,
Head of Military Intelligence's Research Division -
Iran could have nuclear weapons by 2009.
July 2007: IDF Military Intelligence --
Iran will cross the "technological threshold" enabling it to
independently manufacture nuclear weapons
within six months to a year
and attain nuclear capability as early as mid-2009.
June 2007: Iran moves significantly closer towards acquiring the
essential material for a nuclear bomb
March 2006: UN "Has
Less Than a Year"
to Stop Iran Going Nuclear -
Times-UK
December 2006 -- it may be just about
too late
already
Former IDF
Chief of Staff Moshe Yaalon: Iran "would have nuclear technology within a
year and a half, and will have the bomb
within 3-5 years."
April 2006:
Iran has succeeded in
reconfiguring the Shahab-3
ballistic missile to carry nuclear weapons.
"This is a major breakthrough for the Iranians," said a senior U.S.
official. The Shahab-3 has a range of 800 miles, enabling it to hit a wide
range of targets throughout the Middle East - including Israel. -
Telegraph-UK
------------------
April 14, 2006: Iran's (apocalyptic-messianist
lunatic) President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad:
“Like it or not, the Zionist regime is heading toward annihilation. The
Zionist regime is a rotten, dried tree that will be
eliminated by one storm.”
Rafsanjani: The day "the
world of Islam comes to possess [nuclear] weapons" will be "the day ...
global arrogance will come to a dead end."
A bomb used against Israel
"would leave nothing on the ground" and would rid the world of much
"extraneous matter."
Amnon Rubinstein:
The reality is that in Iran - though not only there - the Islamic
willingness to commit suicide in order to murder has been elevated to the
level of national policy.
According to Gen. Salehi, one of
Ahmadinejad's military advisers,
a clash between the Islamic Republic and the
United States has become
inevitable.
"We must be prepared," Salehi says.
"The Americans will run away, leaving their illegitimate child [i.e.,
Israel] behind. And then Muslims would know what to do."
------------------
But Iran's not alone
-- wiping Israel off the map is exactly what Saudi authorities have been
avowing for years to Arabic-speaking audiences.
Saudi publications collected from American
mosques that were translated from
Arabic this year by Freedom House are replete with such statements. (More)
Where is
the sane moderate peace loving
Muslim world? (More)
Nuclear
Threat:
Iranian Bomb
Saul Singer:
[T]he enlightened post-modern European refusal to lift a finger - let
alone a gun - to defend itself is consigning
us all to a dark age of
terrorism and war.
Iranian
front man
Moqtada al-Sadr:
"I am the striking arm for
Hizballah
and
HAMAS
in
Iraq"
(More
on Iran's role in Iraq. Tehran is now spending
$70 million a month
on its Iraq operations. Is the U.S.
playing
by Iran's rules?;
Syria
too -- from which Saddam's cousin appears to
run a base
for the so-called "resistance".)
Arafat's
playbook
employed in Iraq.
Innocents held captive
-- the eleven Iranian Jewish hostages in Iran
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